by Collinson FX
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Collinson FX market Commentary: March 4, 2014
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Markets were hit hard by the Geo-Political issues evolving in the Ukraine. Russia has invaded the Crimean Peninsula and confined Ukranian troops to their barracks. In new developments, overnight, Russia has demanded Ukrainian surrender of some Naval forces.
Putin is taking advantage of the internal upheaval in Kiev to annex long desired and previously owned territory. It may be that he is satisfied with the semi-Autonomous zone, but he has ambitions to expand the Russian Federation.
Markets do not appreciate the upheaval and equities plunged globally, ignoring economic data. The flight to safety reversed recent weakness in the USD with the EUR falling back to 1.3735 and the GBP slipping to 1.6660. European Manufacturing PMI was steady but this was largely ignored. US Manufacturing expanded from 51.3 to 53.2 and Personal Income and Expenditure also booked gains.
Chinese Manufacturing continued to contract undermining confidence in commodity currencies.
The AUD plunged below 0.8900 but regained some lost ground overnight, moving back to trade around 0.8900. The KIWI quietly booked gains but the resurgent Dollar pushed the NZD back to 0.8330.
Turmoil from Europe remains the dominant driver of global markets with upheaval threatening to spread. A close look at the RBA today may have an impact on the currency locally.
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