MarineBusiness-World.com
 
 
News Home FishingBoating Photo Gallery Australian Cruising Sail-World Australia
Sail-World.com : Collinson FX Market Commentary: June 14, 2014 - RBNZ pumps KIWI up
Collinson FX Market Commentary: June 14, 2014 - RBNZ pumps KIWI up

'- Day 5, 2014 Toyota Optimist Championships, Manly SC'    © Richard Gladwell    Click Here to view large photo

Collinson FX market Commentary: June 14, 2014

Click here to find out how to get CollinsonFX's free iPhone app

US Equity markets recovered some lost ground to close a week of losses. The turnaround was a reactive bounce, rather than any fundamental recovery. The University of Michigan Confidence survey, contracted from 81.9 to 81.2, which is further indication the economic recovery is stunted.

The situation in Iraq is starting to spread discomfort in Geo-Political circles and this is being reflected in oil prices. The radical Islamists are overwhelming the incumbent Sh'ite Government and the country is turning into a war zone. This is unsettling for the US and allies who fought so hard to rebuild post-Saddam Iraq. The EUR continued this inexorable decline and traded 1.3540, due to ECB expansionary monetary policies, gifting huge risk free profits to member banks in an effort to clandestinely bail them out of their parlous financial positions.

The GBP is heading in the opposite direction, moving to 1.6975, thanking God they declined the single currency. NZ PMI contracted from 54.40 to 52.7 as the economy suffers the collateral damage inflicted by the Reserve Bank. Interest rate differential pushed the KIWI ever higher and now approaches the 0.8700 mark. NZ Trade will be impacted as the currency hits the all important trade sector hard.

Current Account data and GDP growth will start to reflect the Wheeler Syndrome. The AUD traded around 0.9400, while market turmoil, may impact in the coming week. Geo-Political issues in the Middle East and Europe have potential to upset markets with some local economic data giving daily direction.

Collinson FX market Commentary: June 13, 2014

Sentiment has changed this week with equities hit hard again. Once again, there was little in the way of economic data release, but the bubble is testing all-time record highs. Retail Sales improved but not to the degree expected and Jobless Claims rose.

This did not impact greatly as bad news is often good news, perversely, as the bad news will be greeted with more Central Bank stimulus. The bubble is primed, but the fear now is inflation, which would require the Central Bankers to tighten their massively expansive monetary policies. The RBNZ did just that, as paranoid Governor Wheeler, raised rates once again! He lives in the land of Oz, because this is an attempt to combat the Auckland property bubble, rather than a sustained threat from inflation.

This would be acceptable policy but for the fact that all other Central Banks are easing, thus promoting attractive interest rate differentials, thus the carry trade. The currency is reacting as expected and heading towards 0.8700.

This will hit the trade exposed sectors, which drive the NZ economy and impact borrowing costs locally, hitting business.

The AUD has taken the positive from this and hit 0.9400 supported by strong commodity demand. The EUR continues to wain, trading 1.3550, while the GBP pushes ahead to 1.6840. Markets are nervous with record levels not justified by economic fundamentals.

:
Steinlager II - Start ANZ Fiji Race, June 7, 2014 -  © Richard Gladwell   Click Here to view large photo

Collinson FX market Commentary: June 12, 2014

Equity markets tumbled with a sudden realisation that all is not well according to the World Bank! The review of global growth from 3.2% to 2.8% is another in a long line of downward moves. The World Bank and IMF continually espouse blue sky forecasts and then backtrack as reality hits home.

The ECB and the USA move post GFC corrupted Keynsian economic policies and run endless deficits to promote socialist polices rather than promote capitalism and self reliance. The result is endless mountains of debt which will destroy the economy.

At some stage the massive monetary expansionism will result in higher interest rates which will result in interest rates that will bankrupt economies. Interest rates will not rise for the right reasons, demand, but supply. At some stage the lure of low interest Fed and ECB debt will disappear and then bond rates will spiral and the GFC will seem a walk in the park. The EURO has been hit hard by the ECB and is self immolating. The single currency is trading 1.3525 and looks set to go lower. The Bank of England has changed course from the Fed and ECB and endeavours to battle back. The GBP recovers towards 1.6800 with a Governor who sees the light.

The RBNZ has no such luck with a leader who lives in Alice in Wonderland. He has raised rates in an attempt to reel in regional real estate bubbles ignoring the cost to the economy. He has raised the cost of capital and hit economic growth. The trade sector will be smashed as the NZD rises due to interest rate differentials and the resultant carry trade. RBNZ has raised rates again with .25% to 3.25%.

Update: RBNZ raised OCR by .25% to 3.25% as expected. RBNZ says high dollar is unsustainable. Kiwi up after announcement.

High flying in the RNZYS Club Marine Winter Series -  © Richard Gladwell   Click Here to view large photo

Collinson FX market Commentary: June 11, 2014

Markets were mixed overnight with slight swings between positives and negatives. The EUR continued to suffer the impact of the ECB's extra-ordinary negative deposit rates and crashed to 1.3540. The initial upward movement has been more than erased as the Central Bank continues massive monetary expansionism and wealth destruction.

The desired impact on trade will be almost immediate but the negative impacts will be more far reaching. UK Manufacturing and Industrial Production continued to recover, giving some support to the GBP, trading 1.6750. Italian GDP continued to contract, reflecting the struggles in the single market, and more especially the Med economies. US markets were steady, with the NFIB Small Business optimism reporting a tepid improvement, reflecting the marginal state of the domestic economy.

The AUD traded around 0.9350, despite a contraction in Job Advertisements and a deterioration in Business Conditions, reflecting some positive economic conditions emerging. The pressure from the RBNZ, to force the NZD lower, has begun to subside with the interest rate differentials encouraging the KIWI back towards 0.8500. Substantial economic data release or Central Bank activity will drive equities, currencies and Bonds for the remainder of this week.

For more on Collinson FX and market information see:
www.collinsonfx.com and www.collinsonwealthmanagement.com

Countries: | NZ: 0800 338 838 | AU: 1800 143 415 | NY: 1888 6257 833 | UK: 0800 0285 834 |


Disclaimer: The details expressed in this website and accompanying documents or transmissions are for information purposes only and are not intended as a solicitation for funds or a recommendation to trade. Collinson Forex Ltd accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss or damages suffered through any act or omission taken as a result of reading or interpreting any of the information contained or related to this site.


by Collinson FX


  

Click on the FB Like link to post this story to your FB wall

http://www.marinebusiness-world.com/index.cfm?nid=123301

1:44 AM Sat 14 Jun 2014GMT


Click here for printer friendly version
Click here to send us feedback or comments about this story.

Click for further information on
2011 Collinson & Co

Related News Stories:

13 Jun 2014  Collinson FX Market Commentary: June 13, 2014 - Sentiments change
12 Jun 2014  Collinson FX Market Commentary: June 12, 2014 - Alice in Wonderland
11 Jun 2014  Collinson FX Market Commentary: June 11, 2014 - Swinging markets
07 Jun 2014  Collinson FX Market Commentary: June 7, 2014 - The alternate Universe
07 Jun 2014  Collinson FX Market Commentary: June 6, 2014 - Negative deposit rates
05 Jun 2014  Collinson FX Market Commentary: June 5, 2014 - KIWI weak and stalled
31 May 2014  Collinson FX Market Commentary: May 30, 2014 - Kiwi economy falters
30 May 2014  Collinson FX Market Commentary: May 29, 2014 - RBNZ blues hit NZ
28 May 2014  Collinson FX Market Commentary: May 28, 2014 - KIWI limps along
28 May 2014  Collinson FX Market Commentary: May 27, 2014 - NZ Trade data falls
MORE STORIES ...




Marine Business News













































Volvo Ocean Race CEO Knut Frostad talks Time and Money (Part II) *Feature by Rob Kothe and the Sail-World team,
















Yamaha inspires students to succeed by Yamaha Motor Australia,






Volvo Ocean Race 2014-15 CEO Knut Frostad talks (Part I) *Feature
Collinson FX Market Commentary: August 19 2014 - ANZAC gap widens
Buy a slice of Solar Sailor history *Feature
Swan celebrates sales success *Feature
AIMEX expands to include a commercial marine division
4x4 Outdoors Show and Fishing and Boating Expo on the horizon
Collinson FX Market Commentary: August 16 2014 - Mixed message at end
Stealth i14 out of China
Brisbane Boat Show 2014 - New boat engines set to rev up interest
Collinson FX Market Commentary: August 15 2014 - AUS consolidation
National 4x4 Outdoors Show and Fishing and Boating Expo - 4WD heaven
Yanmar selected for big torque at low revs
Sydney Boat Show display winners recognised *Feature
Superyacht Australia sees resurgence for yacht building in Australia
Collinson FX Market Commentary: August 14 2014 - Aussie confidence up
China Yachting Conference lines up the speakers
Design Award METS now open for entries
Collinson FX Market Commentary: August 13 2014 - Aussie drifts
Volvo Team Vestas Wind skipper Nico says: 'We can win' - Part II *Feature
Volvo Ocean Race Team Vestas Wind skipper - One Design is key *Feature
2014 National 4x4 Outdoors Show: Popularity of caravanning and camping   
2015 Sydney Inte'l Boat Show - Boating Industry commences planning   
Volvo Ocean Race - Danish entry confirmed as Team Vestas Wind   
Collinson FX Market Commentary: August 12 2014 - NZ Credit Card dead   
Pacific Boating membership offers hassle-free boating *Feature   
Marine15 expands trade, networking and B2B opportunities *Feature   
2014 Auckland on the Water Boatshow - Huge prize packs up for grabs   
Fire causes million dollar damage on HMAS Bundaberg   
4X4 Outdoors Show and Fishing and Boating Expo wows water lovers   
Volvo Ocean Race: Win a stopover trip by designing an ECsix T-Shirt   
Collinson FX Market Commentary: August 9 2014 - RBA confirms low rates   
2014 Audi Hamilton Island Race Week: Last minute accommodation options   
Sydney Int'l Boat Show - Stellar results for Multihull Solutions   
Collinson FX Market Commentary: August 8 2014 - Oz jobless jumps   
NSW Environment Minister awards 'Fish Friendly' Marina Accreditations   
PSP Southampton Boat Show - Don't miss the most exciting show ever   
Doyle Sailmakers delivers sails to 60m Perini Navi Sloop Perseus 3   
METS - New look and feel for SuperYacht Pavilion   
Aurora to ship Riviera’s World Premiere to Fort Lauderdale   
Collinson FX Market Commentary: August 7 2014 - NZ UnEmployment drops   


For this week's complete news stories select    Last 7 Days
   Search All News
For last month's complete news stories select    Last 30 Days
   Archive News





Sail-World.com  


















Switch Default Region to:

Social Media

Asia

Australia

Canada

Europe

New Zealand

United Kingdom


http://www.sail-world.com/event_images/image/Twitter_logo_small.png http://www.sail-world.com/event_images/image/FaceBook-icon.png  http://www.sail-world.com/event_images/image/RSS-Icon.png

United States

Cruising Northern

Cruising Southern

MarineBusiness World

PowerBoat World

FishingBoating World

 

Contact

Commercial

News

Search

Contact Us

Advertisers Information

Submit news/events

Search Stories/Text

Feedback

Advertisers Directory

Newsletter Archive

Photo Gallery

 

Banner Advertising Details

Newsletter Subscribe

Video Gallery

Policies

 

 

 

Privacy Policy

 

 


Cookie Policy

 

 



This site and its contents are © Copyright TetraMedia and/or the original author, photographer etc. All Rights Reserved.  Photographs are copyright by law.  If you wish to use or buy a photograph contact the photographer directly.
XLXL WAS MBW
LocalAds   DE  ES  FR  IT