by Collinson FX
Collinson FX market Commentary: August 20, 2014
Optimist-Collinson 025 - 2014 Toyota Optimist Nationals, Manly
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The Bull market appears to have returned to US equities, which is now eliminating the correction that occurred earlier in the year. Expectations were for a 10% correction which is considered healthy and a pre-requisite for a continued Bull-market, but fell well short. This did not occur because of Central Bank expansionary monetary policies.
Corporate earnings have been relatively strong, but economic news has been weak, thus allowing monetary policy to expand beyond previous conceptions. The avalanche of money has been a free kick to bankers and forced investors into equities with little to attract in the bond market. US Housing Starts surged by 15.7% and Building Permits rose 8.1%, in what has been a volatile Housing sector and generally disappointing. This gave impetus to the US markets and pushed the Dollar north.
The EUR is now testing 1.3300 on the downside while the GBP was hammered back to the low 1.67's. RBA Minutes released yesterday confirmed uncertainty globally and domestically, thus allowing the Bank to leave rates low and unchanged for an extended period. The AUD consolidated around 0.9300 although the NZD took a hit after economic data confirmed a contraction in the local economy. GDP growth forecasts were back to 3.8% from 4.0%, although the fiscal surplus remained intact.
The NZD fell to the low .8400’s and is suffering the direct impact of the RBNZ higher interest rate strategy. Interest rate differentials will continue to counter economic fundamentals contradicting Wheeler and his efforts to combat the Housing bubble.
- 2014 Toyota Optimist Nationals, Manly
Collinson FX market Commentary: August 19, 2014
US Equity markets surged, after gains the previous week, reflected growing confidence in the global Geo-Political situation. Russian-Ukrainian talks began over the weekend, in a search for a solution, while aid convoys still wait. The ceasefire in Gaza is holding and this makes for a relatively quiet period thus boosting market confidence.
The shock of a contraction in German growth has led to expectations that the ECB will further boost stimulus thus supporting equities but not assisting the maligned single currency. The EUR dipped to 1.3350, while the GBP rallied to 1.6730, reflecting currency independence. Jackson Hole commences this week, in Wyoming, in a gathering of Bankers which has led to Central Bank policy changes in the past. It is worth monitoring with important appearances from ECB President Draghi and Fed Chairman Yellen.
House Prices in the US rallied, contradicting recent data, further adding momentum to markets. The AUD consolidated above 0.9300, with interest focused around the release of the RBA minutes that may reveal some insight into the Central Bank strategy. The KIWI is trading around 0.8470 and has an inflation report from the RBNZ to consume, which may influence monetary policy, ergo the NZD.
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