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Collinson FX Market Commentary: April 2, 2014: RBA hold rates

'A-class catamaran World Championships, Day 3, Takapuna February 13, 2014'    © Richard Gladwell    Click Here to view large photo

Collinson FX market Commentary: April 2, 2014

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Equity markets continued to display optimism as fears over the Ukraine subside and economic activity continues to improve. Manufacturing reports from China, Europe and the US all point to slight improvements, which allow investors to surge ahead with equities. Yellen reinforced the Fed's intention to continue the extra-ordinary stimulus via Monetary Policy which provides ample liquidity.

The European markets also attempted to return to normal with steady Manufacturing PMI data and Unemployment (albeit extremely high!). The EUR tries to break 1.3800 with undue pressure on the Dollar. The US liquidity prevents any short term rally in the currency allowing some return to relative strength from opposites.

The commodity currencies are trading strongly with the KIWI 0.8650 and the AUD 0.9240. The RBA left rates unchanged yesterday, as expected, and provided little in the way of economic insight other than a slight uptick in Employment. Geo-Political events present the only real threat to bullish sentiment.

Blair Tuke (NZL) A-class catamaran World Championships, Day 3, Takapuna February 13, 2014  © Richard Gladwell   Click Here to view large photo

Collinson FX market Commentary: April 1, 2014
Equity markets surged to wipe out last weeks losses and confidence surged. European markets settled with assurances from Russia that invasion of the Ukraine was not anticipated. Russia has reached out to the West to settle things down and pocket gains already achieved in the Crimea.

There is a reason to doubt this, with up to 80,000 troops massing on the border and Russian expansionism, hardly sated. This is a chess game, timing is essential, a combination of wit and military force will prevail short-term. The EUR settled at 1.3770 and the GBP gained back to 1.6680. Yellen has endorsed tapering but also observed 'unprecedented monetary stimulus will continue for an extended period' to combat a slack labour market. Australian New Home Sales rose, ahead of the RBA rate decision today, which has continued to boost the currency.

The AUD broke back above 0.9250, with expectations of no action in interest rates, but a bias towards firming. The KIWI has continued to perform well, trading 0.8670, looking forward to important manufacturing data out in China, Europe and the USA. A big week for economic data releases although this could be overwhelmed by Geo-Political developments in the Ukraine.

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3:26 PM Wed 2 Apr 2014GMT


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